Beyond
the Blame Game: Can Facebook Be Fixed?
By Laura
DiDio
E-Commerce Times
05/26/12 5:00 AM PT
Facebook's most daunting challenge in both the near and
long term is how to monetize its existing base of users. The obvious answer is
to drive greater advertising revenues. One way to do that is to more closely
track and sell user information and preferences. However, that strategy is
risky and could backfire.
The
honeymoon is over for Facebook (Nasdaq: FB) and Mark Zuckerberg. In fact, it
ended before it began.
Facebook's
long-awaited and much-hyped IPO is just over a week old, and the blame game is
on as the company has lost 16 percent of its value since the initial offering.
Wall Street's take on Facebook has gone from jubilant to jaundiced.
The
stock ended its first full day of trading a week ago Friday at US$38.23,
essentially flat from its $38 opening price. It did manage to set an IPO record
for sheer volume -- 567 million shares exchanged hands.
Investors
hoped for a turnaround, but it hasn't materialized. On Monday, a selloff
prompted the shares to fall by nearly 11 percent, ending at $34.03. The news
worsened Tuesday. The stock sank another 8 percent, trading in the $31-$32
range. By the one-week mark, the picture hadn't improved. The stock closed Friday
at $31.91.
Investors
have been quick to assign blame, and they didn't have far to look. Facebook's
lead banking underwriters, Morgan Stanley (MS), JP Morgan (JPM), and Goldman
Sachs (GS) all slashed their Facebook earnings forecasts in the middle of the
IPO road show, according to Reuters.
The
underwriter analysts cut their estimates after Facebook issued an amended IPO
prospectus, in which it used vague language to state that the number of users
was growing faster than revenue. That was a big red flag. But the worst part of
this story is that the sales slippage was only disclosed to a select few
underwriters and not the public-at-large, who were eager to cash in on what
they thought would be a great deal.
Industry
Calls for SEC to Widen Facebook Probe
The
Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is already investigating the opening
day glitches that delayed Facebook being traded on the Nasdaq exchange for
about an hour. There are calls for the SEC to widen its probe into why there
was not a full disclosure about Facebook's lower earnings forecast in advance
of the IPO.
The
failure to reveal the sales and earnings slowdown helped make Facebook the
second largest IPO in U.S. history behind Visa (NYSE: V).
Regardless
of any actions by the SEC, the takeaway is this: Zuckerberg and Facebook
executives became instant millionaires, but the average investor lost because
the company was overvalued.
Can
Facebook do anything to reverse its initial slide and avoid a backlash that
could cause it to sink even deeper? The company must at least attempt to live
up to the hyperbole. As a public company with a very high profile, Facebook is
answerable to shareholders and investors.
The
slightest fluctuation in the stock price -- or worse yet, a continued downward
spiral -- will be analyzed and second guessed as witnessed by the headlines and
commentary.
It
is imperative for Facebook to quickly find ways to accomplish the following:
- expand its base beyond its current
900-plus million members by attracting new users internationally;
- monetize and productize its
services; and
- build a cogent, compelling and
cohesive mobility strategy that includes mobile applications.
Facebook
founder Mark Zuckerberg, who's firmly in charge with 56 percent ownership,
realizes this. That's why he, his executives and engineers engaged in an
all-night "hackathon" at Facebook's Menlo Park, Calif., headquarters
brainstorming ideas to attract new users and coding software that could
potentially enrich the company's coffers.
Investors
will be more anxious than ever to see Facebook's short-term tactical and
long-term strategic plans to grow the company and swell the ranks of the 900
million current users -- particularly in international markets.
Established
competitors like Google (Nasdaq: GOOG) and newcomers like Pinterest will also
be keeping a close eye on Facebook's fortunes. Facebook must move quickly and
decisively to put the billions it made in its IPO to work immediately before
the stock declines further. Zuckerberg must continue to grow the company,
develop new products to sustain and expand profitability, and avoid being a
flash-in-the-pan.
Facebook's
Growth Strategies: Organic and by Acquisition
Growth
comes from two avenues: organic, in which companies develop their own
applications and products; and by acquisition, in which they purchase expertise
and immediate credibility and an entrée into new markets. Facebook must do
both.
The
global economic climate remains challenging. Many of the top-tier high
technology firms, including Google, HP (NYSE: HPQ), IBM (NYSE: IBM) and Oracle
(Nasdaq: ORCL), have made large, high-profile acquisitions. Google, for
example, spent more than $10 billion purchasing nearly 200 firms since its 2004
IPO -- plus another $12.5 billion for its acquisition of Motorola, a deal it
just closed after receiving regulatory approval in China.
Facebook's
most notable acquisition to date has been the $1 billion purchase of Instagram,
which makes a mobile photo application.
Fixing
Facebook
That's
a start. The type of company Facebook elects to invest in or purchase is
equally important. Mobility is unquestionably one of the most lucrative and hotly
contested vertical markets. As a mobile photo application, Instagram has the
potential to appeal to both consumer and corporate users. And Instagram is also
less likely to fall prey to the fickleness that is so pervasive in gaming
applications, which typically have the greatest appeal among young users.
Facebook
could conceivably ink a deal with a wireless carrier to charge fees to transfer
photos and photo albums on mobile phones and tablets. For Facebook to play
successfully in the big leagues and challenge the likes of Google, it will have
to make targeted acquisitions in the mobility space that will enhance its
current offerings to ensure a continuing, solid revenue stream.
Facebook's
most daunting challenge in both the near and long term is how to monetize its
existing base of users. The obvious answer is to drive greater advertising
revenues. One way to do that is to more closely track and sell user information
and preferences. However, that strategy is risky and could backfire.
Recently,
U.S. automaker General Motors (NYSE: GM) dealt Facebook a blow when it
announced it would withdraw its ads from the social media site. According to
GM, it did not realize the hoped-for return on investment from new car sales.
This
signals that corporate giants still view Facebook as largely a social media
site geared more toward entertainment and games sales. The company also
suffered a recent setback on the consumer games front. CrowdStar, one of its
biggest developers, said last month it would stop making new consumer games for
Facebook. Instead, CrowdStar will now focus on creating mobile games.
Facebook's
ads do not yet support mobile advertising, and its click-through rate is
"under 0.05 percent, about half the average CTR for banner ads across the
Internet, thus earning a grade of B+ compared to Google's A," according to
a recent study from WordStream.
WordStream
founder and chief technology officers (CTO) Larry Kim was openly critical of
Facebook's prospects in an open letter to investors, stating, "So far,
Facebook's advertising platform hasn't kept pace with the explosive growth of
its social network, and it remains to be seen if CEO Mark Zuckerberg even wants
to focus on advertising as a source of revenue."
The
study gave Facebook only a "C" grade for targeting ads, noting that
it earns "no significant revenue" from its mobile applications used
by 425 million people on iPhones and Androids each month.
Facebook
must find a way to turn this around. As the majority stakeholder with veto
power over minority investors, Zuckerberg must convince Wall Street and the
industry-at-large that he and Facebook are more than just a social network
aimed primarily at the under 21-crowd.
Several
critics focused on Zuckerberg's dressed down appearance and his penchant for
wearing a hoodie. The criticisms are not without merit. The late Steve Jobs
could proudly sport his "uniform" of black turtlenecks and black
jeans, but Jobs and Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) had a proven track record of success
that spanned both the consumer and corporate market segments.
If
Zuckerberg expects Facebook to be taken seriously, he'll have to signal his
intentions by targeting a larger and more diversified customer base.
In
another potential setback for Facebook, game maker Zynga's (Nasdaq: ZNGA) stock
price dropped by 5 percent, perhaps impacted by insider selloffs and dwindling
numbers of users playing the company's staple online games like
"Farmville," "Zynga Poker" and "Draw Something."
There
is no doubt that Zynga has been a cash cow for Facebook, which has helped
propel its popularity. But the social games market is cyclical, and extremely
sensitive to user fads and whims; it is not a reliable source of long-term
recurring revenue.
Zynga's
fortunes are subject to sharp reversals. This trend is reinforced by less-experienced
investors who panic at the first sign of weakness. If one high-technology
bellwether stock performs badly on a given day, it will create a domino effect,
with investors downgrading the entire market sector.
Zynga
could just as easily be back on top next week with a new online social game
that catches the public's fancy and helps spur an advertising boom on Facebook,
but that's not something Facebook can count on.
Diversification
is another element that's pivotal for Facebook's immediate and long-term
success. It must have a strong, variegated portfolio of products and
partnerships.
Wooing
Wall Street and corporate partners, as well as making strategic acquisitions
and investments in mobile and business applications, must be top priorities for
Facebook. The company will also have to respond satisfactorily to any SEC
investigation. Zuckerberg can't move quickly enough. Otherwise, Facebook could
crash and burn faster than the Hindenburg and suffer the blowback from angry
users.